June 15, 2006
Dear Client:
As you know, equity markets have experienced large declines over the past five weeks.
From May 9, 2006 through June 13, 2006 the S&P 500 declined 7%. Other equity markets
experienced even larger losses:
| US Small Cap | -14% |
| Foreign | -15% |
| Japan | -18% |
| Emerging Markets | -25% |
| Gold | -22% |
Negative returns are a necessary component of equity investing. The recent decline is large but
not extraordinary. Looking at monthly total returns* of U.S. large cap stocks we find that
returns were negative in 36% of the months going back to 1990**.
MONTHLY RETURNS OF THE S&P 500 INDEX
FROM JANUARY 1990 THROUGH JUNE 13, 2006***
Of the months that had negative returns, one out of every five months had declines larger than
5%.
THE NUMBER OF MONTHS SINCE 1990 THAT S&P 500 RETURNS WERE:
The returns of foreign equities yield similar results. The returns of the EAFE (Europe, Australia
and the Far East) Index were negative the same proportion of months as the S&P 500 Index, but
large declines were more frequent: almost one of every three negative months resulted in
losses of more than 5%.
This trend continues for small-cap and emerging markets stocks: the frequency of negative
returns is about the same, but the declines are steeper.
Fortunately, assets that have large negative returns normally generate even larger positive
returns.
All of this is NOT to say that losing value isn’t painful; it is for all of us. But it is important to
stay focused on the long-term objective: generating returns that will outpace inflation and taxes
and enable you to fund your lifetime objectives.
The recent decline does provide us with an opportunity to reassess your risk tolerance. If
portfolio losses are making you anxious, we should discuss whether your current asset allocation
should be more conservative.
Please keep in mind that investment returns are inherently volatile and unpredictable in the
short-term. The best time to invest is when investors are most worried.
Please feel free to call or email me at any time. I am happy to talk with you about specific or general concerns, or anything that is on your mind.
Audrey Grubman, CFP®
President
*monthly total return includes reinvested dividends
**since January 1, 1990
***monthly returns from January 31, 1990 through May 31, 2006. June 1, 2006 through June
13 2006 is treated as the final month.
|